How to Prevent Nuclear Proliferation

In order to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons we need to understand why countries want nuclear weapons, and then we need to understand the incentives that could be put in place to cause them to not want those weapons anymore. We can boil the reasons for countries wanting nuclear weapons down to four primary motivations; 1) self-protection, 2) money/power/prestige, 3) hostile intent, 4) to prevent further proliferation.

The US, Russia, India, Pakistan, Israel, China, etc. I would argue maintain nuclear arsenals for the purpose of self-protection. That is, they would have no reason for those arsenals if it weren’t for others having their own arsenals and doubting the intentions of others. For example, I believe the US should maintain a nuclear arsenal in tip-top shape because while I’m 99% sure Russia and China wouldn’t attack us with nuclear weapons if we didn’t have any, I’m 1% unsure, and to me that’s reason enough to maintain our arsenal as a deterrent, just in case. And then there are the countries that do have hostile intent. Our military might be one deterrent to keep Iran from using a nuclear weapon, but I think the idea of Tehran being completely swept out of existence within a few seconds is a much more effective deterrent.

North Korea fits category #2. I don’t think they necessarily want to use nuclear weapons against anyone (although I have my doubts), but I do believe they are in the business of selling nuclear weapons and technology to other countries like Syria and Iran. When North Korea recently did tests of missiles and nuclear devices I wasn’t thinking it was them talking to the US and its allies saying “Hey, watch out because look what we have” it was them talking to Syria and Iran saying “Look how much we’ve improved our nuclear technology and missile technology, now how much are you willing to pay for it?” It was a product demonstration. And it allows Mr. Il to show off within his own country.

Iran is the perfect example of hostile intent. They’ve stated that they want to wipe Israel off the map. Is there any doubt they’d like to acquire nuclear weapons so that they can do it?

Finally, some countries maintain nuclear weapons to prevent other countries from obtaining them. Not just in the sense of “Don’t go nuclear or else!” but “Don’t go nuclear because you don’t need to–we’re already protecting you with our arsenal.” For example, there’s no reason for Poland to go nuclear if they can depend on the protection of the United States, and the same goes for many other countries around the world. However, if the Unites States were to “take the lead” and unilaterally disarm and no longer maintain a nuclear arsenal, many other countries would suddenly race to develop nuclear weapons so as to have their own home-grown deterrents against the nuclear weapons of their potential enemies. This could have disasterous consequences, because the more countries that have nuclear weapons, the greater the chance that they may fall into the wrong hands, that is, the hands of someone who has hostile intent.

Thus, the safest and surest way to prevent more countries from developing nuclear arsenals is to maintain our own, which, by the way, we are not doing. We have substantially fewer missiles than Russia does, and ours are outdated and in poor repair. Nothing else short of complete disarmament could provide more incentive to other countries to develop their own arsenals for all the reasons listed above.